Middle East Update: Iranian Scouting Attack on Israel, Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza
The IRI has sent a fleet of drones to attack Israel
Following a rocket attack by Israeli Occupation Forces on the Iranian embassy in Iran, tensions have severely escalated in the region. Iran has suffered many indignities before from Israel and the West. When Qassim Soleimani was assassinated in Iraq, Iran’s official military response was to bomb an empty US airforce base in Iraq. It is now well known that the US cooperated with the Iranians to ensure that no American soldiers were killed during the operation. The threat of starting world war three has always held back the Islamic Republican leadership from retaliating to their full potential.
However, the insult of attacking an embassy is too much for Iran to bear. Embassies are meant to be sacrosanct, and Iran cannot let one of it’s greatest enemies get away with this. However, Iran is still a cautious power. It has launched a fleet of drones towards Israel, and given the countries in it’s region a choice. They can let the drones pass over their space or they shoot them down. Jordan has chosen to cooperate with Israel in destroying drones. This means that Iran has the international legal right to retaliate against Jordan, however it does not have to avenge the death of any actual soldiers.
This attack is a carefully planned scouting mission, aimed at testing Israel’s military defenses and the strength of the Axis of Resistance that Iran leads. Countries that allow Iran to send its plane through their airspace can be considered allies against Israel, while regimes that shoot down aircraft are to be considered enemies. Israel’s iron dome system is currently battling with this first wave of drones. It remains to be seen how Israel will respond.
However, Turkey must also be considered in this equation. Iran/Israel and Turkey are the three most important regional powers, who triangulate Middle East foreign policy between themselves. Turkey has adopted newly expansionist ambitions since the failure of the Gullenist coup. Turkey’s diplomatic influence may be the difference between this war escalating or deescalating. Cooler heads will not prevail in Tel Aviv or Tehran without a third force intervening.
In reaction to the threat of war with Iran, Israel has begun withdrawing troops from southern Gaza. Israel has not yet delivered the death blow to Hamas and it’s allies that they hoped to perform by invading Khan Yunis, however it has opened aid in north Gaza and appears to be allowing some Palestinians to return to their former homes. It remains to be seen how the Gaza front will develop.
important tweets:
https://twitter.com/Megatron_ron/status/1779247720407949446?t=2EsD2o5jNDZImKp07peCbA&s=19
https://x.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1779282415774519660