Left Organizing Under A Second Trump Term

Trump is the most likely winner of the 2024 elections, if nothing changes in the coming months. How will his rise impact left wing political activity

No one expected Trump to win in 2016, but he did. It would be foolish to assume that he can’t win again. If Trump wins in November, left wing organizers and groups should be ready for what will come afterwards. We can’t afford to be flat footed like we were in 2016.

Trump and his allies have learned from the failures of his first term, where he was hamstrung by protesters, ‘deep state’ bureaucrats, voters and the American tradition of constitutional government. This time, his backers intend to hammer through their program with extreme force. Trump summarized his position in a joke when he would be a dictator on his first day, and return to democracy for the next four years. This is a joke, but Trump’s first 100 days will be full of attempts to ram through a conservative agenda that has the potential to transform America. Here are some of the issues that the left should expect to face under Trump:

Trump Bump: After Trump was elected in 2016, every left wing organization experienced an explosion in membership. This phenomena, known as the Trump Bump, has lead to the mass popularity of socialist politics among a broad swathe of the young people and the working class. In order to capitalize on a second Trump bump socialist groups will have to be ready to offer new members both political education and practical tasks. We should expect massive and disruptive protests like the ones that stopped the Muslim Ban. However, we should be careful about not burning ourselves out or exploiting new members. We will have to treat the Trump bump like flame to be nurtured and cared for, not wasted on useless adventurism or smothered through commandism.

far right triumphalism: In his last term, Trump gave far right street gangs “space to destroy” by removing FBI pressure on them. This lead to a rise in hate crimes, far right ideological recruitment and activism. This culminated in the January 6th riot, and Biden has failed to put the lid back on the far right movement. Under Biden, if anything, the far right has gone through a process of ‘better fewer, but better.’ Where ill disciplined and disruptive actors have been culled and the hardcore of committed militants remains. Anyone who joined the alt right in 2015 for the memes has long ago either become a hardened activist, dropped out or been thoroughly compromised by either the FBI or antifascists. We should expect that if Trump is reelected that these hardened militants will celebrate their victory by coming after us. We should prepare for campaigns of doxxing and physical intimidation.

Left wing activists should learn how to maintain a culture of security both online and offline and left wing organizations will need to develop the ability to vet people and hold meetings under intense pressure both online and IRL. Right now the far right’s public presence is limited to flash mob events, because of the intense pressure they face from antifascists and the state. Under Trump, expect more events like Unite The Right that are intended to bait the left into open street combat. We should also expect more attempts to normalize far right talking points like the great replacement in online and mainstream discourse.

“Project 2025: is a plan to reshape the executive branch of the U.S. federal government in the event of a Republican victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.” The goal is to preplace federal employees with party loyalists. Fighting against project 2025 will involve political trench warfare, where victories and losses will be measured in inches taken or won. We should, of course defend the jobs of some federal employees but if we reject the Project without offering an alternative vision for civil service reform, we will fail. The federal government is a bloated mess that does not serve the people, and defending the status quo en toto will be a political mistake. The fight against project 2025 will be a game of political trench warfare, where victories and losses will be measured in inches taken or lost. We will have to use lawfare, protests, labor actions and every other method to defend progressive elements of the federal government, while letting others take the lead in defending reactionary government institutions such as the FBI and DOJ.

criminalization: Under the last Trump administration, there were multiple attempts to declare “antifa” a terrorist organization. This failed because there is no legal definition of domestic terrorism, and antifa is not a group. However, with Trump back in office and the moderate elements of the Republican Party no longer holding him back; we should expect a massive crackdown on the left. Two places where the left will be especially vulnerable will be the Stop Cop City movement and pro Palestinian activism. Trump has already threatened to deport pro Palestinian college students and Stop Cop City protesters have been charged with terrorism. Under Trump, federal prosecutors may have the freedom to use conspiracy theories about Soros funding or fake videos from project veritas as the basis for prosecutions. Our defenses will have to be based on popular litigation, courts are manned by individuals and we should target every pressure point and use every mechanism to fight the prosecutions. Obviously, good lawyers are important but we shouldn’t be afraid to use tactics such as protests outside of judge and prosecutors house or disruptive protests to effect legal outcomes.

foreign policy weirdness: Trump’s recent political career has been marked by two separate rhetorical strategies on foreign policy. In theory, Trump is an isolationist and he has done a lot to bring American troops home. However, his strongman self image has lead him to engage in many irrational military actions. The most prominent example was the killing of Qassim Soleimani, the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Qud’s force. We should expect more weirdness from his second term, and be prepared to take to the streets to oppose imperialist aggression abroad while supporting non interventionist moves. If his administration takes a new stance on Ukraine this may radicalize many liberals. We might even see a rise in civilian foreign volunteers who go to Ukraine to fight if Trump actually cuts aid. Masses of liberals who have been radicalized to take militant action on behalf of Ukraine will complicate things for tankies and tankie adjacent groups who want to pose as the most radical organizations.

Shittification: With Trump and his gang of idiots in charge of the government, federal services will get worse. If another crisis such as covid occurs, it will be hard or impossible to develop a unified federal response. This general degradation of living standards will offer the left a chance to build mutual aid and dual power institutions.

mass deportation: Trump’s white nationalism has always been most explicit in regards to immigration. Under Trump, we saw the separation of families at the border, reduction in the number of refugees the US is willing to take in and other draconian policies. Trump let Richard Spencer’s college buddy Steven Miller shape much of his immigration policy, and since leaving office he has fanned the flames of far right fear of an “invasion” under Biden. If he comes back into office he will begin his administration with a crackdown on undocumented workers, and empower ICE to carryout monstrous raids across the nation. We should look at Texas, and it’s desire to kill migrants crossing the Rio Grand as a model for what Trump’s immigration agenda will look like. Our response on this issue should be swift, militant and dedicated. One central task we need to begin now is to make all of our organizations fully multi lingual and unite the English speaking left with the immigrant left.